In an effort to plan for port development, this study projected commodity movements to the year 2030, starting with a projection for 1985 and projecting tonnages each five years thereafter until the year 2000 and each 10 years thereafter. It was decided to make such projections by major commodity groups as well as for total tonnage estimates by using time series and regression analysis. The first step in the preliminary analysis was to identify and define the commodity groups that would be used in the projection process, which included: coal and lignite; fuel oils; aggregates; and general cargo. The next step was to identify a set of independent variables--six of which dealt with income, five with population and three with employment--that could logically have some relation to commodity movements through the port of Louisville. The first step in the detailed analysis was to compute a series of time series equations based on the 27 years of historical data available for the 12 commodity classes selected for analysis. The final step was to structure the regression equations in such a manner as to diminish the effects of multicollinearity as much as possible. These procedures ensured an orderly collection and analysis of the factors considered relevant to the study; and it is believed that they could be applicable to other, similar studies that may be undertaken in the future.

Media Info

  • Media Type: Print
  • Features: References; Tables;
  • Pagination: pp 5-7
  • Monograph Title: Waterborne commerce and inland port development
  • Serial:

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00193348
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS, TRB
  • Created Date: Apr 25 1979 12:00AM