A new concept for predicting the performance reliability of a bus service is developed and evaluated. Reliability of bus service is defined as the amount of consistency associated with an operational performance measure from day to day. The variability of travel time performance is posited as the best indicator of reliability. Travel time is found to be an accurate and easily collectible performance measure, and data are collected for several steady state periods. These are defined as periods in which performance measure characteristics remain relatively unchanged. A beta distribution with predicted parameters is fitted for the bus travel time data, both for peak and off-peak situations. Based on this distribution, a strategy for predicting performance reliability is suggested.

  • Corporate Authors:

    Pergamon Press, Incorporated

    Maxwell House, Fairview Park
    Elmsford, NY  United States  10523
  • Authors:
    • Polus, A
  • Publication Date: 1978-8

Media Info

  • Features: References;
  • Pagination: p. 253-256
  • Serial:

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00188940
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: Engineering Index
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Mar 28 1979 12:00AM