An Analysis on Long Term Emission Benefits of a Government Vehicle Fleet Replacement Plan in Northern Illinois

Little research has been done on the emissions benefits of government fleet replacement (retirement) programs. This study seeks to fill this gap by evaluating the long-term emission benefits of a fleet replacement program implemented by a local government agency, the Forest Preserve of DuPage County, Illinois (FPDC). A probabilistic vehicle survival model that accounts for time-varying covariates such as vehicle age and gasoline price is used. The vehicle lifetime operating emissions are calculated based on the estimated vehicle survival probabilities from the survival model and compared with those derived using the Environmental Protection Agency default fleet used in MOBILE6 and the fleet represented by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory survival curve. The results suggest that there may be short term emission benefits from the accelerated vehicle scrappage rate of the FPDC fleet replacement plan. However, the long-term emission benefits are highly sensitive to economic factors, such as future gasoline prices, and exhibit a decreasing trend. These findings indicate that to achieve optimal cost effectiveness, an adaptive multi-stage replacement strategy should be considered.

• Record URL:
  https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-007-9149-1
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/00494488
• Authors:
  • Lin, Jie
  • Chen, Cynthia
  • Niemeier, Debbie A
• Publication Date: 2008-3

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Print
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: pp 219-235
• Serial:
  • Transportation
  • Volume: 35
  • Issue Number: 2
  • Publisher: Springer
  • ISSN: 0049-4488
  • EISSN: 1572-9435
  • Serial URL: http://link.springer.com/journal/11116

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Air quality management; Economic factors; Exhaust gases; Fleet management; Local government agencies; Pollutants; Probability; Vehicle fleets
• Uncontrolled Terms: Long term impacts; Vehicle scrappage
• Geographic Terms: DuPage County Forest Preserve (Illinois)
• Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Economics; Energy; Environment; Highways; I15: Environment;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01091369
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Apr 23 2008 9:22AM