This paper discusses the role of aviation forecasts in the planning process, describes the methodology used to derive the forecasts, and details the nature of the involvement in the state forecasting process. The forecasting process consisted of: collecting 1977 base year data; factoring up base year data for population growth, and rising per capita aircraft ownership; and making adjustments for airports in metropolitan areas. Local input was incorporated into the forecasts in the following ways: population forecasts containing local inputs; aviation forecasts were reviewed; master plannings efforts were considered; and Regional Airport Systems Plannings and State Airport Systems Planning efforts were coordinated. The Study found that the population ratio approach fulfilled the need for a simple and understandable forecasting approach. The use of widely accepted population projections as a basis for the forecasts greatly contributed to agreement on the forecasts themselves and perhaps more importantly the recommendations derived from them. This experience demonstrated that the need for better data on based aircraft and operations at nontowered airports, and for consistent definitions, is greater than the need for more sophisticated forecasting techniques.

  • Supplemental Notes:
    • Presented at Fourth Annual Federal Aviation Administration Forecasting Conference.
  • Corporate Authors:

    Arizona Department of Transportation

    Transportation Planning Division, 206 South 17th Avenue
    Phoenix, AZ  United States  85007
  • Authors:
    • Wolfe, H
    • Johnson, T
  • Publication Date: 1978-10-24

Media Info

  • Pagination: 10 p.

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00195056
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Created Date: Jul 31 1979 12:00AM