TRANSPORTATION ENERGY SCENARIO ANALYSIS TECHNICAL REPORT-NO. 1: EXAMINATION OF FOUR EXISTING SCENARIOS

This project aims to provide the DOE Division of Transportation Energy Conservation (TEC) with a long-range forecasting framework in which to evaluate potential changes to the U.S. Transportation system. This initial report examines four existing, but diverse, 50-year scenarios of the future. It describes the scenarios and summarizes the changes in the major transportation system variables that would occur through the year 2025 in each scenario. Projections of variables of interest to TEC are explored, including passenger or ton miles and energy consumption. Each is reported for 1985, 1995, 2010, and 2025 under four scenarios: success, moderate economic growth, energy crisis,and transformation. The philosophy of this project is that the transportation system must support future lifestyles; by examining potential future lifestyles the required transportation system changes can be deduced. The project: (a) develops a set of scenarios that span likely futures; (b) describes the lifestyles in each scenario in order; (c) determines the characteristics of the transportation system supporting those lifestyles; (d) indicates transportation technologies and policies necessary in that system; and (e) derives the energy characteristics of that system. The implications of the four existing scenarios are examined with emphasis on current TEC electric-vehicle development. This preliminary investigation will be followed by detailed-scenario building (modifying existing scenarios or developing new ones) and generation of lifestyles and transportation system demands under each of the scenarios. This work will be reported in October 1978.

  • Corporate Authors:

    Argonne National Laboratory

    9700 South Cass Avenue
    Argonne, IL  United States  60439

    Department of Energy

    1000 Independence Avenue, SW
    Washington, DC  United States  20585
  • Authors:
    • Bernard III, M J
    • LaBelle, S J
    • Millar, M
    • Walbridge, E W
  • Publication Date: 1978-3

Media Info

  • Pagination: 79 p.

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00194123
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: Energy Research Abstracts
  • Report/Paper Numbers: ANL/EES-TM-1
  • Contract Numbers: W-31-109-ENG-38
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: May 26 1979 12:00AM