RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN THE ESTIMATION OF POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF HIGH ALTITUDE AIRCRAFT EMISSIONS ON OZONE AND CLIMATE

A review is provided of recent (December 1976-June 1978) developments in problems associated with estimating the potential effects that aircraft emissions at cruise altitudes may have on the earth's protective ozone shield and/or surface climate. Background information is provided as deemed necessary for context. The review shows that one recently measured key reaction rate(HO2 + NO yields NO2 + HO) has had dramatic effects on the ozone question. Computed effects on the ozone column of nitrogen oxides (which, unless in very large quantity, now cause an increase) and water vapor emissions (which, unless thermal feedback effects are included, cause a decrease) from supersonic transports (at 17-20 km) are now small and, on balance, apparently positive, at least for moderate fleets (several hundred aircraft). Subsonic aircraft also appear to cause small increases in the ozone column; however, no new modeling results are available. The new HO2 + NO rate has affected model duplication of the natural atmosphere adversely; another important new rate (HO2 + O3 yields HO + 2 O2), not yet incorporated in available results, may reduce this difficulty. Second-order effects (thermal feedback) have become important, particularly in modeling water effects; the modeling of water transport processes, however, involves many uncertainties. Additional modeling studies are needed. Progress in emissions measurement uncertainties and brief comments on possibly important climatic aspects are also included. (Author)

  • Corporate Authors:

    Institute for Defense Analyses

    400 Army Navy Drive
    Arlington, VA  United States  22202
  • Authors:
    • Oliver, R C
    • Bauer, E
    • Wasylkiwskyj, W
  • Publication Date: 1978-10

Media Info

  • Pagination: 198 p.

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00191312
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: National Technical Information Service
  • Report/Paper Numbers: FAA-AEE-78-24 Intrm Rpt., P-1343
  • Contract Numbers: DOT-FA77WA-3965
  • Files: NTIS, TRIS
  • Created Date: May 11 1979 12:00AM