Prediction and Classification of Operational Errors and Routine Operations Using Sector Characteristics Variables

This study examined prediction and classification of operational errors (OEs) and routine operations (ROs) using sector characteristics variables. Average Control Duration, Aircraft Mix Index, Average Lateral Distance, Average Vertical Distance, Number of Handoffs, Number of Point Outs, Number of Transitioning Aircraft, and Number of Heading Changes were used as predictors in two stepwise logistic regression analyses conducted for the high-altitude and low-altitude sectors. In the high-altitude sample, variables included in the final model (Number of Heading Changes, Number of Transitioning Aircraft, and Average Control Duration) accurately classified OE and RO samples for 80% of the cases. In the low-altitude sample, variables included in the final model (Number of Point Outs, the Number of Handoffs, and the Number of Heading Changes) accurately classified OE and RO samples for 79% of the cases. Although logistic regression cannot be used to determine causation, it effectively identified variables that predicted the occurrence of OEs.

• Record URL:
  http://www.faa.gov/data_research/research/med_humanfacs/oamtechreports/2000s/media/200718.pdf
• 
• Supplemental Notes:
  • Work was accomplished under approved task AM-B07-HRR-522.
• Corporate Authors:

  Federal Aviation Administration

  Civil Aerospace Medical Institute, P.O. Box 25082
  Oklahoma City, OK  United States  73125

  Federal Aviation Administration

  Office of Aerospace Medicine, 800 Independence Avenue, SW
  Washington, DC  United States  20591
• Authors:
  • Pflediderer, Elaine M
  • Manning, Carol A
• Publication Date: 2007-7

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Print
• Edition: Final Report
• Features: References; Tables;
• Pagination: 16p

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Air traffic control; Aircraft; Aircraft navigational aids; Aircraft pilotage; Error analysis; Errors; Forecasting; Logistic regression analysis; Logistics; Regression analysis
• Uncontrolled Terms: Airspace sectors; Operational errors
• Subject Areas: Aviation; Data and Information Technology; Freight Transportation; Operations and Traffic Management; Vehicles and Equipment;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01056020
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: DOT/FAA/AM-07/18
• Files: TRIS, USDOT
• Created Date: Aug 27 2007 2:54PM