Market Adjustments over Transportation Networks: A Time Series Analysis of Grain Movements on the Mississippi Inland Waterway System

This article describes a model to better estimate market adjustments along inland waterway freight networks using time-series techniques. Policy implications for more accurate and easier-to-use models are discussed, especially the need for the Army Corps of Engineers to evaluate potential improvement projects. The time-series model described here allows the identification of important patterns in how the level of river traffic interacts with elements such as barge rates, rail rates, rail deliveries, and ocean freight rates. Shocks to barge prices and shocks to prices and quantities of freight as well as competing transport modes are also included in the model. The analysis used is vector auto regressions (VAR), which is intended to address some of the problems traditionally associated with static and dynamic structural forecasting. Central results show that barge demand and lock supply shocks have significant effects on variables. Results suggest that attempts to measure the structural demand relationships and equilibrium responses need to be reflected in current planning.

  • Availability:
  • Authors:
    • Thoma, Mark A
    • Wilson, Wesley W
  • Publication Date: 2007-5

Language

  • English

Media Info

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01054554
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: UC Berkeley Transportation Library
  • Files: BTRIS, TRIS
  • Created Date: Jul 13 2007 3:01PM