Analysing the Amber Dilemma Problem Using Risk Analysis Techniques

Running a red light can be a deliberate decision made on the part of the driver, or the result of an inability to halt safely due to the amber dilemma. This paper reports on a study undertaken to determine the driver and signal factors that are most important in the occurrence of an amber dilemma conflict. The study modeled the movement of two vehicles at a 90-degree opposition to each other at an intersection. Risk assessment software (@RISK) was used to model a distribution of values rather than a fixed value. The authors examined four scenarios (where Vehicles A and B are in opposing lanes): Vehicle A is in the dilemma zone; Vehicle B is stationary at the limit line in lane furthest from Vehicle A; Vehicle A has a low deceleration rate and large perception-reaction time; and Vehicle B has a low perception-reaction time. The data showed that the probability of a crossing conflict decreases significantly as the amber and/or all-red time increases. The authors conclude that the parameters that are significant in the occurrence of an amber dilemma conflict can be isolated, but they do not have a large practical application, as most of them are unable to be readily controlled or changed. However, the study data does support the current use of a 3.8-second amber period.

Language

  • English

Media Info

  • Media Type: Print
  • Features: Figures; References; Tables;
  • Pagination: 4p
  • Monograph Title: Institution of Professional Engineers New Zealand (IPENZ) Transportation Group. Technical Conference Papers 2003

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01052086
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS, ATRI
  • Created Date: Jun 17 2007 8:19AM