Decision Analysis Applied to Tunnel Exploration Planning. II: Consideration of Uncertainty

Tunnel exploration is a classic problem of decision making under uncertainty. This paper, Part II, dealing with the exploration problem, discusses the sources of uncertainty in tunnel exploration, and provides techniques to formally incorporate uncertainties into the exploration planning. Part I described the state of uncertainty in geology and exploration reliability using assigned probabilities. These probabilities are, however, uncertain. Construction costs are also uncertain. This paper presents tools with which the decision maker is able to assess the effects of these uncertainties on exploration decisions. Decisions are therefore made based on the value of collecting new, uncertain information through “virtual” exploration prior to actually exploring.

• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/oclc/8675438
• Authors:
  • Karam, Karim S
  • Karam, Jad S
  • Einstein, Herbert H
• Publication Date: 2007-5

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Print
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: pp 354-363
• Serial:
  • Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
  • Volume: 133
  • Issue Number: 5
  • Publisher: American Society of Civil Engineers
  • ISSN: 0733-9364
  • EISSN: 1943-7862
  • Serial URL: http://ascelibrary.org/journal/jcemd4

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Case studies; Construction; Costs; Decision making; Risk management; Tunnels; Uncertainty
• Uncontrolled Terms: Exploration planning
• Subject Areas: Bridges and other structures; Construction; Finance; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; I50: Construction and Supervision of Construction; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01051539
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Jun 8 2007 8:34PM