Estimating non-fatal road casualties in a large French county, using the capture-recapture method

Non-fatal road casualties are under-reported, with official figures coming from the police. In the French Rhone county, a road trauma registry constitutes a second source of reporting but its completeness needs to be assessed. We also wish to estimate an incidence rate of non-fatal road casualties that is corrected for under-count. Having two sources of reporting available, we can apply the capture-recapture method under certain conditions. To take into account different reporting probabilities among casualties, the capture-recapture analysis is stratified according to injury severity (New Injury Severity Score = NISS), road user type and human third party. To evaluate the sensitivity of the capture-recapture estimate on the number of matched casualties between the police file and the registry, three scenarios of record-linkage are considered. For serious (NISS 9+) non-fatal road casualties, the police ascertainment rate is at most 57%, the registry ascertainment rate is at most 87%, and the aggregate ascertainment rate is at most 95%. The ascertainment-corrected incidence rate for serious (NISS 9+) non-fatal road casualties is at least 65 per 100,000. These findings indicate that the degree of completeness of the registry for serious casualties is rather high, though not satisfactory.

• Record URL:
  http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V5S-4MBC55K-1/2/24eded3eabca1a4695e39af2390e47cc
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/00014575
• Supplemental Notes:
  • Abstract reprinted with permission from Elsevier
• Authors:
  • Amoros, Emmanuelle
  • Martin, Jean-Louis
  • Laumon, Bernard
• Publication Date: 2007-5

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Print
• Features: Appendices; References; Tables;
• Pagination: pp 483-490
• Serial:
  • Accident Analysis & Prevention
  • Volume: 39
  • Issue Number: 3
  • Publisher: Elsevier
  • ISSN: 0001-4575
  • Serial URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00014575

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Crash injuries; Crash records; Crash reports; Estimating; Injury rates; Injury severity; Recordkeeping; Traffic crash victims; Traffic crashes
• Uncontrolled Terms: Capture-recapture method
• Geographic Terms: Rhone (France)
• Subject Areas: Highways; Safety and Human Factors; I81: Accident Statistics; I84: Personal Injuries;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01051298
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS, ATRI
• Created Date: Jun 6 2007 12:48PM