Estimating non-fatal road casualties in a large French county, using the capture-recapture method
Non-fatal road casualties are under-reported, with official figures coming from the police. In the French Rhone county, a road trauma registry constitutes a second source of reporting but its completeness needs to be assessed. We also wish to estimate an incidence rate of non-fatal road casualties that is corrected for under-count. Having two sources of reporting available, we can apply the capture-recapture method under certain conditions. To take into account different reporting probabilities among casualties, the capture-recapture analysis is stratified according to injury severity (New Injury Severity Score = NISS), road user type and human third party. To evaluate the sensitivity of the capture-recapture estimate on the number of matched casualties between the police file and the registry, three scenarios of record-linkage are considered. For serious (NISS 9+) non-fatal road casualties, the police ascertainment rate is at most 57%, the registry ascertainment rate is at most 87%, and the aggregate ascertainment rate is at most 95%. The ascertainment-corrected incidence rate for serious (NISS 9+) non-fatal road casualties is at least 65 per 100,000. These findings indicate that the degree of completeness of the registry for serious casualties is rather high, though not satisfactory.
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Availability:
- Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/00014575
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Supplemental Notes:
- Abstract reprinted with permission from Elsevier
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Authors:
- Amoros, Emmanuelle
- Martin, Jean-Louis
- Laumon, Bernard
- Publication Date: 2007-5
Language
- English
Media Info
- Media Type: Print
- Features: Appendices; References; Tables;
- Pagination: pp 483-490
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Serial:
- Accident Analysis & Prevention
- Volume: 39
- Issue Number: 3
- Publisher: Elsevier
- ISSN: 0001-4575
- Serial URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00014575
Subject/Index Terms
- TRT Terms: Crash injuries; Crash records; Crash reports; Estimating; Injury rates; Injury severity; Recordkeeping; Traffic crash victims; Traffic crashes
- Uncontrolled Terms: Capture-recapture method
- Geographic Terms: Rhone (France)
- Subject Areas: Highways; Safety and Human Factors; I81: Accident Statistics; I84: Personal Injuries;
Filing Info
- Accession Number: 01051298
- Record Type: Publication
- Files: TRIS, ATRI
- Created Date: Jun 6 2007 12:48PM