Estimation of Non-Fatal Road Traffic Injuries in Thai Nguyen, Vietnam Using Capture-Recapture Method

This article reports on a study that used a capture-recapture technique to investigate road traffic injuries in a developing area. The authors applied two sample capture-recapture methods using hospital and traffic police records to estimate non-fatal road traffic injuries in Thai Nguyen City (Vietnam) for 2000-2004. The capture-recapture method is used to estimate difficult-to-count populations. The method is based on matching two independent samples (in this case, police data compared to hospital data) to arrive at an estimation of the total. The authors generated a conservative, adjusted estimate of non-fatal RTIs and then compared these estimated rates with those actual rates as reported by police and hospital data. During 2000-2004, the police reported 1,373 non-fatal RTIs, while hospital records revealed 6,069 non-fatal RTIs. Most reported victims on both hospital and police reports were males (67.3 % and 74.4%, respectively). More than half the victims on both hospital and police reports were drivers (77.5% and 66.1%, respectively) or pedestrians (10.6% and 7.1%, respectively). Youth and young adults (ages 15-34) constituted the majority of the victims on the hospital and police reports (52.8% and 63.7%, respectively). The capture-recapture analysis estimated that 11,140 subjects were involved in RTIs during the study period. In comparison to the estimated figure, the official sources accounted for only 21.9 to 60.1% of total non-fatal RTIs. The authors conclude with a discussion of the problem of under-reporting of RTIs, which has been a major limitation of routine official data sets in developing countries. They suggest that the capture-recapture method be used as a tool to provide affordable and reliable estimates of RTIs in developing countries.

  • Authors:
    • Van, Hung Trinh
    • Singhasivanon, Pratap
    • Kaewkungwal, Jaranit
    • Suriyawongpaisal, Paibul
    • Khai, Lap Hoang
  • Publication Date: 2006-3


  • English

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  • Accession Number: 01047284
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Apr 29 2007 7:28AM