Perspectives for Network Management in Response to Unplanned Disruptions

Under terrorism evacuation scenarios, road authorities should consider two important perspectives. The first is the observation that prior to evacuation households will gather together, with drivers delaying evacuation or entering dangerous situations so that all household members are collected. This pattern is unanticipated and results in atypical traffic patterns and extensive evacuation times. The second perspective is considering these patterns in conjunction with terrorist targeting strategies. The author assumes targeting strategies are based on maximum transportation network connectivity disruption. The author presents a mathematical model of household reaction to evacuation conditions, postimpact emergency evacuation, and rationale behind terrorist target selection. Links that are most important to successful evacuation completion are most likely to be targeted if terrorist intent is to cause disruption. A simulated case study shows, however, that the most important links in a well connected network do not necessarily lead out of the evacuation area.


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  • Accession Number: 01045386
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Mar 28 2007 9:26AM