A Spatial Economic Model to Forecast External Trips in Small Communities

A primary concern in forecasting traffic volumes to support highway bypass infrastructure improvements, when proposed for a small community, is the quantification of external traffic on approach roadways. Essentially, the question transportation professionals are trying to answer is how many vehicles are destined for town versus vehicles solely passing through the town. The current methods for calculating the external traffic include conducting an origin-destination study or applying existing regression equations. This paper's objective is to examine the possibility of using spatial economic models to predict the external traffic values. This paper applies two spatial economic models to predict the external traffic for three small communities in Alabama, and compares the model results against a cordon-line origin-destination study. The paper identifies the model providing external traffic volumes that best replicate the observed external traffic in the case study cities and makes recommendations regarding the various models and their ability to forecast external traffic.

• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

  500 Fifth Street, NW
  Washington, DC  United States  20001
• Authors:
  • Anderson, Michael David
• Conference:
  • 9th National Conference on Transportation Planning for Small and Medium-Sized Communities
  • Location: Colorado Springs Colorado, United States
  • Date: 2004-9-22 to 2004-9-24
• Publication Date: 2004

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: CD-ROM
• Features: Figures; Maps; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 12p
• Monograph Title: Tools of the Trade: 9th National Conference on Transportation Planning for Small and Medium-Sized Communities, September 22-24, 2004, Colorado Springs, Colorado

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Bypasses; Communities; Forecasting; Origin and destination; Small cities; Traffic volume
• Uncontrolled Terms: External trips; Spatial economic models
• Geographic Terms: Alabama
• Subject Areas: Highways; Planning and Forecasting; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01043968
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS, TRB
• Created Date: Mar 7 2007 3:16PM