Methodologies to Predict Service Lives of Pavement Marking Materials

In order to maximize traffic guidance and safety, pavement marking materials must exhibit adequate retroreflectivity throughout its service life. This study describes the development of methodologies for predicting the service life of a pavement marking material based on its retroreflectivity. Data from the 2002 National Transportation Product Evaluation Program pavement marking material test deck in Mississippi are used for model development and model validation. The smoothing spline method and time series modeling are applied to estimate the service lives of different types of materials based on the assumption of a required minimum retroreflectivity value. The same models can also predict the retroreflectivity values at future times for a pavement marking product based on its retroreflectivity values in the past. Validation of the models shows that both can predict retroreflectivity of a pavement marking material for the next 6 months with reasonably good accuracy. The time series model shows better prediction accuracy for short-term predictions. A case study demonstrates that the methodologies can be used in life-cycle cost analysis for marking material selection and in making informed decisions about replacement schedules.


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  • Accession Number: 01042349
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Feb 26 2007 11:46PM