DYNAMIC MODELING OF AIRPORT ACTIVITY

This paper discusses problems encountered in modeling airport activity and particularly emphasizes forward planning and policy making. It is concerned with the relations among airlines, airports, and users (passengers and freight). Three simple models of activity are indicated, dealing successively with capacity, investment, and pricing. A basic need is creating a workable typology of airports in which attributes other than size may be considered. A second requirement is considering the importance of fluctuations in airport output. We used multivariate analysis of data for the leading British airports in the period 1968 to 1972 to develop a successful typology, which is essentially applicable to other national airport systems. It stresses the differences between scheduled and non-scheduled activity. Correlations among definitve output variables are used as input to principal components and factor analysis to derive the typology. Output is then disaggregated by the use of a corrected moving mean to give seasonal and trend components. These are used for analyzing growth and growth variability and for studying the stability over time of seasonal variations. In addition, we note positive links between non-scheduled activity and output variability. The implications of planning are demonstrated, in particular the close association among nonscheduled activity, variability, and predictability. The variable associations also indicate possible investment scenarios for the airport manager and the airport modeler. /Author/

Media Info

  • Media Type: Print
  • Features: Figures; References; Tables;
  • Pagination: pp 11-17
  • Monograph Title: Airport capacity and planning
  • Serial:

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00184219
  • Record Type: Publication
  • ISBN: 0309026849
  • Files: TRIS, TRB
  • Created Date: Dec 29 1978 12:00AM