Simulation-Based Forecasting Effects of an Accidental Explosion on the Road. Part 1: Methodological Framework

Predicting the characteristics and effects of accidental explosions on roads can be helpful in assessing and limiting structural and non-structural damage. This paper first presents a simulation-based procedure designed for selecting the probabilistic models in the absence of statistical data regarding an accidental road explosion. The proposed procedure is designed in the context of a classical Bayesian approach to risk assessment. The premise of the procedure is that statistical samples needed for fitting probabilistic models can be obtained from a stochastic simulation of the accidental road explosion. This proposed simulation-based procedure can then be used for damage assessment and risk studies. The paper also presents a case study illustrating an application of the proposed procedure.

Language

  • English

Media Info

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Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01042924
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: UC Berkeley Transportation Library
  • Files: BTRIS, TRIS
  • Created Date: Feb 13 2007 12:11PM