Using Markov Process and Method of Moments for Optimizing Management Strategies of Pavement Infrastructure

Models based on the Markovian process have been widely used to predict pavement deterioration that is critical to the effective use of Pavement Management Systems (PMS), where the Transition Probability Matrix (TPM) plays an essential role. Existing methods for developing and/or calibrating the Transition Probability Matrix (TPM) rely heavily on historical pavement deterioration data which may not be readily available. Sometimes, even if such data do exist, undocumented maintenance actions taking place during the service life of a pavement make it difficult to develop an accurate TMP with the data. In this paper, a methodology based on the Method of Moments is proposed for the estimation of the future condition state probabilities and the TPM of a pavement, yielding a closed–form solution built upon the pavement design and utilization process instead of historical data. With the established TPM, optimal maintenance and rehabilitation strategies are determined through the employment of a “maintenance matrix” defining specific maintenance actions and a “cost matrix” providing the corresponding costs of these maintenance actions. Since the deterioration process of the pavement and the effect of the maintenance actions on the pavement are mathematically expressed with the TPM and the matrices, the optimal maintenance strategy can be obtained by searching for the maintenance matrix that gives the minimal cost. To demonstrate the application of the proposed methodology, a case study was conducted with a widely used pavement design procedure. The case study indicates that the proposed methodology is valid and easy to implement.

Language

  • English

Media Info

  • Media Type: CD-ROM
  • Features: Figures; References; Tables;
  • Pagination: 19p
  • Monograph Title: TRB 86th Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers CD-ROM

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01043599
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Report/Paper Numbers: 07-3355
  • Files: TRIS, TRB
  • Created Date: Feb 8 2007 8:02PM