International Crash Experience Comparisons Using Prediction Models

Comparisons of accident frequencies are often done with a view to identifying how individual countries are performing relative to others in road safety experience. While such comparisons can be quite useful from a public health management perspective, they can be misleading to those who want a sense of how specific road safety initiatives are performing compared to similar ones in other countries. In particular, these comparisons will not allow engineers in one country to assess how well their designs for individual roadway elements are performing relative to the experience in other countries, or to the earlier experience in the same country. This paper has been prepared with two fundamental objectives in mind. Comparisons of selected accident prediction models from New Zealand, North America, Sweden and Australia are made to 1) illustrate how such comparisons might be used to learn lessons from differences in crash experience for similar roadway elements and 2) illustrate how to assess the transferability of these models among countries. The results suggest that it does appear possible to transfer models from one country to the next, but there are a number of differences between countries that need to be accounted for.

• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

  500 Fifth Street, NW
  Washington, DC  United States  20001
• Authors:
  • Turner, Shane Alan
  • Persaud, Bhagwant N
  • Chou, Michael
  • Lyon, Craig
  • Roozenburg, Aaron
• Conference:
  • Transportation Research Board 86th Annual Meeting
  • Location: Washington DC, United States
  • Date: 2007-1-21 to 2007-1-25
• Date: 2007

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: CD-ROM
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 14p
• Monograph Title: TRB 86th Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers CD-ROM

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Countries; Crash risk forecasting; Data quality; Intersections; Mathematical models; Traffic safety
• Geographic Terms: Canada; New Zealand; Sweden; United States
• Subject Areas: Highways; Safety and Human Factors; I81: Accident Statistics;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01044927
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: 07-3157
• Files: BTRIS, TRIS, TRB
• Created Date: Feb 8 2007 7:52PM