Investigating Effect of Holidays on Daily Traffic Counts: Time Series Approach

Different modeling philosophies are explored to explain and to forecast daily traffic counts. The main objectives of this study are the analysis of the impact of holidays on daily traffic and the forecasting of future traffic counts. Data from single inductive-loop detectors, collected in 2003, 2004, and 2005, were used for the analysis. The different models investigated showed that the variation in daily traffic counts could be explained by weekly cycles. The Box–Tiao modeling approach was applied to quantify the effect of holidays on daily traffic. The results showed that traffic counts were significantly lower for holiday periods. When the different modeling techniques were compared with a large forecast horizon, Box–Tiao modeling clearly outperformed the other modeling strategies. Simultaneous modeling of both the underlying reasons of travel and the revealed traffic patterns certainly is a challenge for further research.

• Record URL:
  https://doi.org/10.3141/2019-04
• 
• Summary URL:
  http://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=Investigating+Effect+of+Holidays+on+Daily+Traffic+Counts%3a+Time+Series+Approach&author=M.+Cools&author=E.+Moons&author=G.+Wets&publication_year=2007
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/isbn/9780309104463
• Authors:
  • Cools, Mario
  • Moons, Elke Amelie
  • Wets, Geert
• Publication Date: 2007

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Print
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: pp 22-31
• Monograph Title: Statistical Methods, Safety Data, Analysis, and Evaluation 2007
• Serial:
  • Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board
  • Issue Number: 2019
  • Publisher: Transportation Research Board
  • ISSN: 0361-1981

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Average daily traffic; Holidays; Loop detectors; Mathematical models; Time series analysis; Traffic counts; Traffic flow; Traffic forecasting
• Subject Areas: Highways; Operations and Traffic Management; Planning and Forecasting; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01047538
• Record Type: Publication
• ISBN: 9780309104463
• Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
• Created Date: Feb 8 2007 6:46PM