Projected Transit Arrival Time Prediction for Transit Signal Priority with Nearside Bus Stops

Many transit agencies are currently considering implementing priority systems providing buses with temporary green signal extensions and early green recalls. While many studies have demonstrated potential delay reductions for buses and potential negative impacts on traffic, very few have attempted to address the problems posed by variable dwell times at nearside bus stops. The high uncertainty of predicting bus stop line arrival times with such stops impacts the performance of transit signal priority systems. This paper presents an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) modeling to predict intersection bus arrival times on approaches with nearside stops based on consideration of past observed bus travel times, elements affecting boarding and alighting demand for approaching buses, and current traffic conditions. Evaluation results show that use of the prediction tool with standard signal priority logic can provide additional bus delay reductions when compared to the current practice of predicting bus arrival using average values for travel and dwell times.

• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

  500 Fifth Street, NW
  Washington, DC  United States  20001
• Authors:
  • Ghanim, Mohammad
  • Dion, Francois
  • Abu-Lebdeh, Ghassan
• Conference:
  • Transportation Research Board 86th Annual Meeting
  • Location: Washington DC, United States
  • Date: 2007-1-21 to 2007-1-25
• Date: 2007

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: CD-ROM
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 18p
• Monograph Title: TRB 86th Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers CD-ROM

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Bus stops; Bus transit; Bus transit operations; Bus transportation; Neural networks; Operations; Public transit; Traffic delays; Traffic signal timing; Traffic signals; Transit operating agencies
• Uncontrolled Terms: Arrival time (Bus transit)
• Subject Areas: Administration and Management; Highways; Motor Carriers; Operations and Traffic Management; Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01049288
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: 07-1967
• Files: TRIS, TRB
• Created Date: Feb 8 2007 6:41PM