Framework of Modeling and Forecasting Stop-Level Transit Patronage

This paper presents a framework of modeling and forecasting stop-level transit patronage for service planning. The paper describes this framework in terms of its three most important features in relation to existing frameworks in the literature. It models and forecasts transit boardings at the individual stop level. It separates direct boarding from transfer boarding for both modeling and forecasting, and, it treats inter-relationships in a transit network through measures of accessibility to opportunities for potential activity participation. The paper specifies a model structure that reflects these features, describes the Tri-Met data from Portland, Oregon, and estimates a set of Poison models for both direct and transfer boardings for the weekday morning peak. In addition, the paper discusses both the advantages of this framework and the challenges to its implementation. This framework is in the process of being implemented into T-BEST, a user-friendly software package.


  • English

Media Info

  • Media Type: CD-ROM
  • Features: References; Tables;
  • Pagination: 16p
  • Monograph Title: TRB 86th Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers CD-ROM

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01047658
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Report/Paper Numbers: 07-1632
  • Files: TRIS, TRB
  • Created Date: Feb 8 2007 6:18PM