Modeling and Estimation of Travel Time Variability

Driver-to-driver travel time variability is an important but poorly understood component of the variability observed in road network performance. This paper examines the properties of driver-to-driver variability and outlines a method that can be used to estimate the driver-to-driver travel time variability from other traffic measurements such as speeds. This paper enhances the theoretical understanding of the relationship between travel time variability and mean travel time. The driver-to-driver travel time variability estimated directly from the speed-based travel time models is comprehensively assessed. It is highlighted that the directly calculated travel time variability substantially underestimates the actual travel time distribution. A method based on lane-to-lane speed variance is subsequently proposed. The results demonstrate that the proposed lane-to-lane tracing method produces reliable upper and lower bounds on travel time. Consequently the method would be suitable for enhancing the quality of the information supplied to road users via roadside travel time signs or internet-based journey planning systems.

• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

  500 Fifth Street, NW
  Washington, DC  United States  20001
• Authors:
  • Li, Ruimin
  • Rose, Geoffrey
  • Majid, Sarvi
• Conference:
  • Transportation Research Board 86th Annual Meeting
  • Location: Washington DC, United States
  • Date: 2007-1-21 to 2007-1-25
• Date: 2007

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: CD-ROM
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 14p
• Monograph Title: TRB 86th Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers CD-ROM

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Estimation theory; Information management; Traffic estimation; Traffic speed; Travel time
• Uncontrolled Terms: Driver-to-driver travel time variability; Mean travel speed; Road networks; Travel time variability; Trip planning
• Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Highways; Operations and Traffic Management; Planning and Forecasting; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01043532
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: 07-0845
• Files: TRIS, TRB
• Created Date: Feb 8 2007 5:25PM