This paper describes a model devised to determine the pay-off from an optimal strategy whereby aircraft are at the disposal of an air traffic controller at a certain point prior to arrival will incur the least cost in fuel expended during delays. The cost of delay decreases as the time to an arrival "gate" increases, making long term (or upstream) strategic air traffic control advantageous. However, some problems requiring action within seconds (i.e. short-term or downstream tactical air traffic control) cannot be predicted in advance due to inadequate data. The forecasting error will increase as time to gate increases; and, if air traffic control begins too early, could cancel out the fuel cost savings from dealing with a predicted delay. The optimal time used in this model is 30 minutes. The important parameters of the model are: traffic demand (movements per hour), acceptance rate (movements per hour), estimated time of arrival (ETA) predicting error (standard deviation of initial error, in minutes), missed probability and planned delay at gate (in minutes). The results of a series of simulations are presented.

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  • Corporate Authors:

    Royal Institute of Navigation

    Royal Geographical Society, 1 Kensington Gore
    London SW7,   England 
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  • Publication Date: 1978-9

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  • Accession Number: 00183869
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: May 11 1979 12:00AM