This paper describes a number of variations to refine the classical Delphi technique, which have been tested in two recent Delphis. A calculated median and interquartile range are introduced. The use of paprallel questionnaires to explore many questions simultaneously is described. The use of probabiliites in ration form is suggested, as are general data transforms for median and interquartile range calculation. The idea of ranking the timing of events is described, and when calculations of the different timescales people use are employed, it is shown that part of the convergence in succeeding rounds arises from changes in people's time scales. Correlation between events is used to identify events that interact and hence, Cross Impact Analysis is required. /GMRL/

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  • Corporate Authors:

    Elsevier Publishing Company, Incorporated

    52 Vanderbilt Avenue
    New York, NY  United States  10017
  • Authors:
    • Kendall, J W
  • Publication Date: 1977

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  • Accession Number: 00183142
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Nov 14 1978 12:00AM