CHANGE AND DISCONTINUITY. FORECASTING FOR THE 1980S

This outline of forecasting takes a very broad view covering many of the diverse approaches now available -- so that attention can be paid to the role of forecasting in discovering and analyzing alternatives, as well as to its established role in prediction. The philosophy of forecasting and the differing methodological approaches are discussed, highlighting particularly the problem of continuity and discontinuity in change, and the concepts of the cultural barrier and the paradigm shift. The paper, applying the idea of discontinuity in social change (the paradigm shift), examines some possibilities for the 1980s. It argues that in the field of social forecasting, which is now becoming an important element in all other types of forecasting, the forecaster's capability to foresee broad changes in values is crucial, since such changes will themselves lead to further developments throughout society.

  • Corporate Authors:

    Prentice Hall, Incorporated

    Upper Saddle River, NJ  United States  07458
  • Authors:
    • Holroyd, P
  • Publication Date: 1978-2

Media Info

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00180026
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: Engineering Index
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Aug 27 1978 12:00AM