This report presents a model of the automobile sector of our economy, which was designed to provide medium- (3-5 year) and long-range (through 1990) projections of gasoline consumption by passenger cars. Emphasis was placed on a model structure to reflect the potential impact of alternative government policies regarding fuel economy, emissions, and safety. Chapter I provides an overview of the logic of the model, including illustrations of the interrelationships between the technological and behavioral factors that determine automobile usage patterns and resultant energy and environmental impacts. Chapter II presents a test of the model's predictive capability both in terms of its ability to explain historical patterns and to provide ''reasonable'' forecasts of the impact of new policies in the future. Chapter III contains a description of the capabilities of the model including the types of outputs generated and the policy options that can be evaluated; it also presents the forecasted impact of several illustrative policy scenarios. The remaining three chapters provide a comprehensive description of the three major segments of the model: technology, economic-behavioral relationships, and emissions. The assumptions, data, principal algorithms, logical structure, inputs, and outputs of each portion are presented. Each of these chapters relates the more detailed presentation to its function in the overall logic laid out in Chapter I. (ERA citation 03:052976)

  • Corporate Authors:

    Energy and Environmental Analysis Incorporated

    1701 North Fort Myer Drive
    Arlington, VA  United States  22209

    Department of Energy

    1000 Independence Avenue, SW
    Washington, DC  United States  20585
  • Publication Date: 1975-7-22

Media Info

  • Pagination: 97 p.

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00186819
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: National Technical Information Service
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Feb 27 1979 12:00AM