MARKETING PROSPECTS FOR WESTERN COAL, WITH A SUPPLEMENTARY REPORT ON THE ECONOMICS OF SYNTHETIC FUELS FROM COAL
Data on western coal availability indicate that low cost resources of such coal are in ample supply to meet demand levels implied by recent energy forecasts. An extensive review of the cost engineering literature on electric power plants leads to the conclusion that while nuclear power appears to have a strong long-run position, the data are subject to considerable uncertainty. A regionally disaggregated simulation of electric utility fuel use shows the wide range of possible coal use patterns that could emerge. Lead times are such that a substantial increase of coal use will occur between now and the middle 1980s but the split of markets between eastern and western coal is unclear. Intensified nuclear competition may restrain subsequent growth in the period 1990-2000, but this is not certain. A method for placing different estimates of synthetic fuel costs on a consistent basis and for testing the sensitivity of such costs to coal prices is presented in the Supplement. This method suggests that earlier studies were overly optimistic about the prospects for synthetic fuels.
Pennsylvania State University, University ParkDepartment of Mineral Economics
University Park, PA USA 16802
National Science FoundationDivision of Policy Research and Analysis, 1800 G Street, NW
Washington, DC USA 20550
- Gordon, R L
- Julian, E L
- Julian, L C
- Publication Date: 1976-12
- Pagination: 346 p.
- TRT Terms: Alternatives analysis; Coal; Coal gasification; Coal resources; Cost estimating; Economic analysis; Economics; Electric power generation; Electric power plants; Energy consumption; Energy resources; Environmental impacts; Equipment; Estimates; Forecasting; Freight traffic; Market research; Marketing; Mathematical models; Nuclear power plants; Oil shales; Policy; Resource development; Synthetic fuels; Traffic forecasting
- Geographic Terms: Western States
- Old TRIS Terms: Energy source development; Government policies; Substitutes
- Subject Areas: Economics; Energy; Environment; Freight Transportation; Policy; Railroads;
- Accession Number: 00186689
- Record Type: Publication
- Source Agency: National Technical Information Service
- Report/Paper Numbers: NSF/PRA-7520827/1/7 Final Rpt.
- Contract Numbers: NSF-OEP75-20827
- Files: TRIS
- Created Date: Feb 27 1979 12:00AM