Probabilistic Life-Cycle Cost Optimization for Pavement Management at the Project-Level

Optimizing lifecycle cost of the Transportation Infrastructure is regarded as a strategic approach/target for achieving the sustainability of the infrastructure systems. In this paper, a lifecycle cost optimization model (LCCOM) for pavement management is presented. The model is developed for analysis at the project-level. The objective of this LCCOM is to identify a lifecycle strategy that can bring about an optimum gain to society. In order to achieve this, the lifecycle cost optimization must be able to look at every feasible lifecycle strategy for the system, regardless of the infrastructure system under consideration. It must consider every possible impact from putting the system into operation, and it must account for the uncertainties existing in the assumptions column of the problem. This LCCOM was developed to tackle these prerequisites and is applied to pavement structures as a platform for constructing the model. The model is formulated as a mixed-integer non-linear optimization model that derives its analytical framework from the economic theory of lifecycle cost analysis. A distinct feature of the LCCOM is the pairing of genetic algorithms as a search tool for arriving at the optima with Monte Carlo simulations as a risk analysis technique. Applying the LCCOM using real-world data obtained from the New Jersey Department of Transportation’s pavement management system verified the applicability of the model and demonstrated its utilities. The research presented in this paper supports project-level probabilistic cost optimization in infrastructure management and opens the door to further exploration of the potential of this approach in real-world decision-making.

• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

  500 Fifth Street, NW
  Washington, DC  United States  20001
• Authors:
  • Ozbay, Kaan
  • Jawad, Dima
• Conference:
  • Transportation Research Board 85th Annual Meeting
  • Location: Washington DC, United States
  • Date: 2006-1-22 to 2006-1-26
• Date: 2006

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: CD-ROM
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 15p
• Monograph Title: TRB 85th Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers CD-ROM

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Decision making; Life cycle analysis; Life cycle costing; Monte Carlo method; Pavement management systems; Risk analysis
• Identifier Terms: New Jersey Department of Transportation
• Uncontrolled Terms: Sustainable maintenance; Transportation infrastructure
• Subject Areas: Finance; Highways; Pavements; Planning and Forecasting; I21: Planning of Transport Infrastructure;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01025756
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: 06-1591
• Files: TRIS, TRB
• Created Date: Jun 19 2006 11:13AM