DEMAND 77: EPRI ANNUAL ENERGY FORECASTS AND CONSUMPTION MODEL. VOLUME 1. FORECASTS AND GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF THE MODEL

This report presents forecasts of end-use consumption of electricity, petroleum, natural gas, and coal for the years 1980 to 2000. The forecasts are based on an econometric model whose equations represent energy consumption of each form of energy in each end-use sector. The forecasts are based on a forecast of long-run economic growth coupled with three scenarios concerning energy prices and conservation policy. Each of the scenarios was coupled with two scenarios concerning natural gas availability, one in which natural gas supplies are restricted at the assumed price and the second in which natural gas is freely available at the assumed price. The scenarios were: (1) a baseline scenario, which assumed that the most likely energy prices would prevail and that no significant new conservation policies would be adopted; (2) a high-electricity-consumption scenario, with low oil prices and minimal obstacles to the use of coal and nuclear energy for electricity generation: and (3) an energy-conservation scenario, which embodied the proposals in President Carter's National Energy Plan. Forecasts are presented for each of the sectors and for each of the forms of energy by five-year periods. The structure of the econometric model is described along with plans for further development. (ERA citation 03:037540)

  • Corporate Authors:

    Electric Power Research Institute

    P.O. Box 1041, 3412 Hillview Avenue
    Palo Alto, CA  United States  94303
  • Authors:
    • Williams, L J
    • BOYD, J W
    • Crow, R T
  • Publication Date: 1978-3

Media Info

  • Pagination: 77 p.

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00185651
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: National Technical Information Service
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Dec 29 1979 12:00AM