Instead of using a point estimate of the future where all parameters have unique values, the method of alternative futures planning suggests that plans be developed based on several plausible futures. This paper discusses the concept, mentions some national level applications, and describes three varied local and regional applications. The first application description is of the long-range transportation system plan being done in Northeastern Illinois. Three futures for the region instead of one are being studied. These multiparameter futures are systematically defined. The second description is of a rail-network optimization study. Here future capital budgets and mode choices are being combined to define nine alternative futures. The last application described is an evaluation of the proposed discontinuation of service on a rapid-transit branch line. The branch is located in an area of urban decline which does, however, have the potential for massive redevelopment. The discontinuation was evaluated under various population futures for the area. After detailing these applications, the paper stresses the commonalities in the applications of the concept. The concept is not only viable but essential to decision making under an uncertain future. (ERA citation 03:040508)

  • Corporate Authors:

    Argonne National Laboratory

    9700 South Cass Avenue
    Argonne, IL  United States  60439

    Department of Energy

    1000 Independence Avenue, SW
    Washington, DC  United States  20585
  • Authors:
    • Bernard III, M J
  • Publication Date: 1978

Media Info

  • Features: References;
  • Pagination: 23 p.

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00185632
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: National Technical Information Service
  • Contract Numbers: W-31-109-ENG-38
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Dec 29 1982 12:00AM