WORLDWIDE TRANSPORTATION/ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST: 1975-2000
A set of 34 countries was considered explicitly for the purpose of carrying out a worldwide long-range forecast of transportation demand by mode. These countries jointly account for 90 percent of the world's GDP, population and energy consumption. Population and GDP for subregions were then projected in a reasonable and consistent manner. The computational procedure was to project population and GDP/capita, based on the annual rates of increase. Tables are used to display population, GDP and GDP/capita figures for 1975 and 2000 for each major country group. The report then focuses on the demand for transportation services. The projection of the passenger-km/GDP, the freight shipped/GDP, and freight shipment distance by mode are projected and tabulated. General comments are made regarding the findings. Finally, the energy requirements for each transportation mode by region are computed. The results are displayed in a number of different ways to emphasize various comparisons. A group of summary charts is included with this report and shows that the U.S. with 29.1% of the worlds GDP currently uses 51.3% of the energy for passenger transportation. On the other hand, the U.S. growth rate will be the smallest in this category, dropping to 30-32% share by 2000. The most spectacular growth will probably occur among the COMECON countries (500%) followed by the developing countries (250%) and Japan (200%).
- Prepared for the Regional and Urban Studies Section, Energy Division, and for the Data Analysis Branch, Nonhighway Transport Systems and Special Projects, Transportation Energy Conservation Division, Office of Conservation, Department of Energy. Purchase Order No. ORNL-11-X-13536V.
Delta Research Corporation1401 Wilson Boulevard
Arlington, VA USA 22209
- Ayres, R U
- Publication Date: 1978-10
- Features: Appendices; Figures; Tables;
- Pagination: 95 p.
- TRT Terms: Alternatives analysis; Demand; Economic development; Energy; Forecasting; Foreign; Freight transportation; Fuel consumption; Population; Transportation
- Subject Areas: Energy; Transportation (General);
- Accession Number: 00185415
- Record Type: Publication
- Contract Numbers: W-7405-eng-26
- Files: TRIS
- Created Date: Mar 14 1979 12:00AM