This paper examines the impact of gasoline embargoes or supply restrictions on New York's gasoline use and price. Mathematical models relating travel (VMT) to gas price, availability, economic background factors, and population are constructed for each of 10 areas of the state. Forecasts of NYS automotive fuel use are then made for the period 1975-1990 to develop an energy background scenario for NY. The implications of (a) gradual supply restrictions during 1981-1985, (b) the effects of an embargo if it were to occur in 1981 or 5 years later in 1986 are then examined. Results suggest that implementation of present federal mpg standards (26.5 mpg by 1985) will permit continued growth in mobility with stable gasoline prices, while achieving a 61 percent savings in gasoline demand. A gradual supply restriction during 1981-1985 is forecast to have a moderately negative effect on mobility and cause a 25 percent reduction in gasoline consumption. The short run effects of a potential embargo in 1981 or 1986 may be expected to have a substantially negative impact on gasoline supply of 49 percent and 55 percent respectively over 1975 levels, reduce mobility by 40 percent and 33 percent respectively and place excessive upward pressure on gasoline cost. Thus, actions to ensure fleet turnover to more efficient vehicles are most prudent. /Author/

Media Info

  • Features: Appendices; Figures; References; Tables;
  • Pagination: 80 p.

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00184844
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: New York State Department of Transportation
  • Report/Paper Numbers: Prelim Res Rpt 142
  • Created Date: Feb 3 1979 12:00AM