Predicting Truck Crash Involvement: Developing a Commercial Driver Behavior-Based Model and Recommended Countermeasures

With safety as a top priority, the trucking industry has worked to identify ways to reduce crashes. As a part of this ongoing safety commitment, the Research Advisory Committee of the American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI) identified the development of an analytical tool for determining the future likelihood of truck crashes as a top research priority. To pursue this research, ATRI engaged as research partners the North Dakota State University Upper Great Plains Transportation Institute (UGPTI) and the Commercial Vehicle Safety Alliance. Several available driver-specific data sets were used by the ATRI research team to design and test an overall truck driver performance-based model for predicting future crash involvement based on prior driving history. The model includes specific violations discovered during roadside inspections, driver traffic conviction information and past crash involvement. An important secondary component of the research identifies effective enforcement actions to counteract the identified problem behaviors/events. The analysis determined a range of statistically significant driving behaviors and events - including violations, convictions, and past crashes - with associated future crash likelihood increases ranging from 18 to 325 percent. Individual behaviors and events are statistically analyzed independently to allow for improved targeting by behavior. For instance, drivers who had a previous crash were 87% more likely to have a future crash. To relate the model outputs to safety improvements in the field, the ATRI research team developed an analytical approach for identifying effective enforcement countermeasures. The process identified statistically "safer" states using weighted enforcement and safety criteria, and then documented the safe state's enforcement strategies by behavior/event. Some of the successful enforcement strategies for addressing problem driver behaviors are those that exhibit one or more of the following components: creating aggressive driving apprehension programs/initiatives; focusing on both commercial motor vehicle (CMV) and non-CMV driver behavior patterns; mixing highly visible and covert enforcement activities; and using performance-based internal monitoring programs to target and manage enforcement. Lastly, the ATRI research team solicited insights and program information from motor carriers on appropriate strategies for dealing with the different behaviors and events.


  • English

Media Info

  • Media Type: Print
  • Features: Appendices; Photos; References; Tables;
  • Pagination: 49p

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01014949
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Jan 3 2006 8:19AM