Mathematical Models Assuming Selective Recruitment Fitted to Data for Driver Mortality and Seat Belt Use in Japan

In this study, the researchers hypothesized that only low-risk drivers became safety belt users when the level of belt use among general motorists is low, but high-risk drivers gradually convert from belt non-users to users in order of increasing risk of potentially fatal crash as the level of belt use becomes very high. It was supposed that the models would show better fit to the data if selective recruitment and behavior changes among high-risk drivers really occurred. Mathematical models were developed to describe the risk of fatal crashes in relation to safety belt use among the general public. These models were fitted to changes in driver mortality and changes in observed safety belt use using Japanese data. Mortality data between 1979 and 1994 were retrieved from vital statistics, and mortality data in the daytime and nighttime between 1980 and 2001 and belt use data between 1979 and 2001 were both retrieved from the National Police Agency. Regardless of the data set analyzed, the exponential models showed the best fit. These exponential models provide more knowledge into behavioral changes among high-risk drivers and support the selective recruitment hypothesis.


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  • Accession Number: 01013457
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS, ATRI
  • Created Date: Dec 17 2005 1:21PM