Effect of Open Skies in the Middle East Region

This study seeks to estimate potential inter-regional passenger flows for air transportation in the Middle East under open skies polices, assuming the various countries in the region can reach a liberalization agreement similar to that of the European Union. To arrive at reasonable demand estimates, Western and Eastern European demand data was analyzed as a first step, since it is assumed that current Middle Eastern demand is distorted as a direct result of regional political instability. The major factors affecting demand, based on the European dataset, included population size, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, absolute difference in GDP per capita between two countries, great circle distance and membership in the European Union and World Trade Organization. Subsequently, a 21-country database was estimated for passenger flow in the Middle East region on an average peak season day. The demand estimations became input for a hub location model in order to identify potential regional gateways. The results proved robust to both single and multiple allocation model assumptions, with Cairo and Tehran consistently achieving hub status, along with Istanbul and Riyadh, as the number of potential hubs increased. Findings from this study suggest that, under conditions of peace and given existing socio-economic indicators, interregional passenger demand flow could increase by upwards of 51%, indicating the economic potential of the region.


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  • Accession Number: 01013353
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Dec 12 2005 10:56PM