Assessment of Economic Impacts from Unexpected Events with an Interregional Commodity Flow and Multimodal Transportation Network Model

A major earthquake in the New Madrid Seismic Zone, located in the center of the United States, could have an enormous impact on economic activities related to this area. According to the 1993 US Commodity Flow Survey, more than 42% of total commodity flows in the US are related to the greater Midwest, which includes the New Madrid Seismic Zone. If a catastrophic earthquake occurred in this area, the indirect damages could spread far beyond the region, and could have sizable impacts on other regions. In this paper, a model of interregional commodity flows, incorporating regional input-output relationships and the corresponding transportation network flows, was applied to assess the economic impacts of such an event. The model was solved using a partial linearization algorithm, and provided estimates of intraregional and interregional flows and link flows by mode for each sector. The economic impacts from the event are described for three hypothetical scenarios, analyzing the magnitude and the extent of the direct and indirect impacts. The findings from this model can be used to identify critical sections of the network and to analyze post-event reconstruction strategies.


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  • Accession Number: 01013345
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS, ATRI
  • Created Date: Dec 12 2005 10:49PM