Forecasting Cycles in the Transportation Sector

This study uses a leading indicator approach to predict the future state of the transportation sector in the United States. Using various screening techniques and modern time series models, the authors selected seven leading indicators from 25 initial candidates. A composite leading index (CLI) was constructed and found to perform well in predicting transportation reference cycles. The CLI signals downturns in the transportation sector 10 months ahead and upturns six months ahead on average. The index predicted the latest recession in transportation with a lead of 20 months. The analysis also confirms the predictive contents of the CLI in relation to transportation growth cycle.

Language

  • English

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Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01006301
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Oct 25 2005 11:12PM