LONG RUN AND SHORT RUN MODELS OF MOTOR VEHICLE DEMAND

Forecasts of demand are required for a variety of reasons and the particular reason usually determines the type of forecast required. In order to make decisions in such areas as employment, forecasts with a time horizon of about 12 to 18 months are usually required. However in areas such as corporate planning and investment decisions making the time horizon for forecasts usually extends to about five years. In much of the literature the models which underly these two types of forecasts seem to be quite unrelated. An attempt is made in this paper to employ a theoretical framework for forecasting the demand for passenger motor vehicles which is applicable both for short run and longer run models. The model is then tested using empirical data and forecasts of demand for passenger motor vehicles, both on a short run and long run basis are made. The paper was prepared for the Fifth Conference of Economist, Brisbane, August, 1975. /Author/TRRL/

  • Corporate Authors:

    Industries Assistance Commission, Australia

    Kings Avenue
    Barton, A.C.T.,   Australia 
  • Authors:
    • Filmer, R
    • Talbot, S
  • Publication Date: 1975-8

Media Info

  • Features: Tables;
  • Pagination: 57 p.

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00182746
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: Transport and Road Research Laboratory (TRRL)
  • Report/Paper Numbers: Monograph
  • Files: ITRD, TRIS
  • Created Date: Oct 31 1978 12:00AM