What Determines Demand for Freight Transport?

Decisions about investments in the long-lived assets of transport infrastructure require some assumptions about prospective long-term demand from services using that infrastructure. To improve the basis for such predictions, the authors estimated the long-run determinants of domestic freight transport, using single-equation regressions on a cross-section of data from "developed" (high-income), "developing" (low-income), and former socialist economies. They also sought answers to two related questions. First, since statistics on national ton-kilometers of freight transport are much scarcer for developing than for developed countries, what is the scope for generalizing from data on high-income countries. Second, within what limits may one apply results obtained from data on market economies to the prospective evolution of freight transport demand in the socialist transitional economies? Their findings suggest that long-run demand for freight transport is determined in closely similar ways in developed and developing market economies. Not, however, in the transitional socialist countries, where structural change is likely to bring far greater changes in rail freight activity than in road transport.

Language

  • English

Media Info

  • Media Type: Print
  • Edition: Working Paper
  • Features: Appendices; Figures; Tables;
  • Pagination: 44p

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01003163
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Report/Paper Numbers: WPS 998
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Aug 18 2005 2:12PM