Despite a concerted effort to reduce road accident deaths in Malaysia, the nation posted a vehicle accident death rate of 5.6 deaths per 10,000 in 2001, which was behind the world-class standard of 3 deaths per 10,000. This led to the adoption of a new national road safety target, which would be 4 deaths per 10,000 by 2010. In this paper, the authors first offer a projection of the vehicle ownership rate in Malaysia to the year 2010. This projection is then used to predict road accidents in the same year. The authors also include an analysis of past trends in the road accident death rate was conducted. The Gompertz growth model is used for projecting vehicle ownership, while an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model with transfer noise function is used for predicting the road accident death rate. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), vehicle ownership, and population growth were also taken into account in the projections. Results from the analysis suggest that a minimum 2.18% reduction is need yearly in order to achieve the national target for 2010.

  • Availability:
  • Authors:
    • Law, T H
    • Radin Umar, R S
    • Wong, S V
  • Publication Date: 2005


  • English

Media Info

  • Features: Figures; References; Tables;
  • Pagination: p. 42-49
  • Serial:
    • IATSS Research
    • Volume: 29
    • Issue Number: 1
    • Publisher: International Association of Traffic and Safety Sciences
    • ISSN: 0386-1112

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01001755
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: UC Berkeley Transportation Library
  • Files: BTRIS, TRIS, ATRI
  • Created Date: Jul 7 2005 12:00AM