PROGRAMMATIC COST RISK ANALYSIS FOR HIGHWAY MEGAPROJECTS

Highway megaprojects (construction projects over $100 million) are fraught with uncertainty. These projects have historically experienced increases in project costs from the time that a project is first proposed or programmed until the time that they are completed. Persistent cost underestimation reflects poorly on the industry in general but more specifically on engineers. Traditional methods take a deterministic, conservative approach to project cost estimating and then add a contingency factor that varies depending on the stage of project definition, experience, and other factors. This paper presents a methodology developed by the Washington State Department of Transportation (WSDOT) for its Cost Estimating Validation Process. Nine case studies, with a mean cumulative value of over $22 billion, are presented and analyzed. Programmatic risks are summarized as economic, environmental, third party, right of way, program management, geotechnical, design process, construction, and other minor risks. WSDOT is successfully using the range cost output from this procedure to convey project costs to management and the public.

• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/oclc/8675438
• Corporate Authors:

  American Society of Civil Engineers

  1801 Alexander Bell Drive
  Reston, VA  United States  20191-4400
• Authors:
  • Molenaar, K R
• Publication Date: 2005-3

Language

• English

Media Info

• Features: Appendices; Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: p. 343-353
• Serial:
  • Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
  • Volume: 131
  • Issue Number: 3
  • Publisher: American Society of Civil Engineers
  • ISSN: 0733-9364
  • EISSN: 1943-7862
  • Serial URL: http://ascelibrary.org/journal/jcemd4

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Cost estimating; Megaprojects; Risk analysis; Risk management; Road construction; Scheduling; Transportation planning; Uncertainty
• Subject Areas: Construction; Highways; I50: Construction and Supervision of Construction;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00988181
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Mar 8 2005 12:00AM