ESTIMATING THE IMPACT OF RECENT INTERVENTIONS ON TRANSPORTATION INDICATORS

Whenever an unusual event disrupts the structural patterns of a time series, one of the aims of a forecaster is to model the effects of that event, with a view to establishing a new basis for forecasting. Intervention analysis has long been the method of choice for such adjustments, but it is often represented as a procedure for dealing with events in the middle of the time series rather than for the most recent observations. This paper develops a method, termed the three-intervention approach, to provide a flexible solution to this problem.

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  • Corporate Authors:

    Research and Innovative Technology Administration

    Bureau of Transportation Statistics, 1200 New Jersey Avenue, SE
    Washington, DC  United States  20590
  • Authors:
    • Ord, K
    • Young, P
  • Publication Date: 2004

Language

  • English

Media Info

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00986783
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS, USDOT
  • Created Date: Feb 16 2005 12:00AM