MONTHLY FORECASTS OF INTEGRATED PUBLIC TRANSPORT SYSTEMS: THE CASE OF THE MADRID METROPOLITAN AREA

This paper addresses the problem of forecasting the demand for a large number of bus and Metro tickets in the Madrid metropolitan area using monthly data from 1987 to 2002. The database is subject to several calendar events, outliers, changing levels of service, and changing seasonality effects that further complicate the analysis and the models' forecasts. The transport agency needs estimates of all effects, as well as a forecast, of the pattern of monthly revenues and use of the transport network. The paper uses both traditional dynamic transfer function causal models as well as new variants of unobserved component models estimated by least squares using automatic identification and linear techniques in the optimization on the frequency domain.

  • Availability:
  • Corporate Authors:

    Research and Innovative Technology Administration

    Bureau of Transportation Statistics, 1200 New Jersey Avenue, SE
    Washington, DC  United States  20590
  • Authors:
    • Garcia-Ferrer, A
    • De Juan, A
    • Poncela, P
    • Bujosa, M
  • Publication Date: 2004

Language

  • English

Media Info

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00986781
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS, USDOT
  • Created Date: Feb 16 2005 12:00AM