This article is based on an earlier study of feasible alternative modes for the city and county of Honolulu (CCH). This article presents a mathematical model for predicting ridership on the proposed fixed guideway transit system and analyses the system's costs and revenues. These findings are than compared to those of the CCH study report. The development of the model is explained, aggregate versus disaggregate approaches and projecting transit ridership are discussed. A discussion of variables such as price per transit ride, population, and personal income is included. The model proposed in this article maintains that, even at an average fare of 20 cents, the expected ridership will be far below that predicted in the CCH study. When factors such as limited accessibility, price sensitivity, and increased competition from highway services are considered, it is difficult to forecast a self-supportive fixed-guideway transit system. Furthermore, it is noted that there is good reason to believe that actual total costs of the rapid transit system will exceed the CCH report estimates and thereby reduce the possibility that the sytem will operate profitably.

  • Availability:
  • Corporate Authors:

    Eno Transportation Foundation

    1250 I Street, NW, Suite 750
    Washington, DC  United States  20005
  • Authors:
    • Simkin, M G
    • Yoshimura, M
  • Publication Date: 1978-1

Media Info

  • Features: Figures; Tables;
  • Pagination: p. 131-144
  • Serial:
    • Traffic Quarterly
    • Volume: 32
    • Issue Number: 1
    • Publisher: Eno Transportation Foundation
    • ISSN: 0041-0713

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00178515
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Aug 27 1981 12:00AM