POLICY-CONTINGENT TRAVEL FORECASTING WITH MARKET SEGMENTATION

Market segmentation of travel data gives a data base that is easy to use and interpret. This paper develops methods for tabulating travel data so that disaggregate travel-demand models can be applied to market segments. These methods result in improved accuracy of travel forecasts because apprecation bias is reduced. The approach also allows nearly immediate computation of demand elasticities. These procedures can be applied to most urban travel-data files by using cross-tabulation software. To demonstrate the methods and their accuracy, the work-trip modal split is simulated on Nationwide Personal Transportation Survey data by using a disaggregate logit model. Travel demand is forecast under a variety of transportation policies that involve automobile controls and transit level-of-service improvments. /Author/

Media Info

  • Media Type: Print
  • Features: References; Tables;
  • Pagination: pp 27-32
  • Monograph Title: Forecasting passenger and freight travel
  • Serial:

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00176455
  • Record Type: Publication
  • ISBN: 0309026644
  • Files: TRIS, TRB
  • Created Date: Jun 14 1981 12:00AM