UNCERTAINTY PROPAGATION IN AN INTEGRATED LAND USE-TRANSPORTATION MODELING FRAMEWORK: OUTPUT VARIATION VIA URBANSIM

The effect of uncertainty in the land use component of a partially integrated land use-transportation modeling system called UrbanSim is examined. Outputs from the land use model (LUM) act as inputs for a traditional four-step travel demand model (TDM), and travel times from the traffic-assignment stage of the TDM are fed forward into the subsequent years' LUM. This work examines the propagation of uncertainty across model stages as well as at each model stage over time. A factorized design approach is used to model uncertainty in demographic inputs (which include aggregate growth rates and mobility rates) to the land use model, as well as uncertainty in various model parameters. Results suggest that although several model inputs may affect model outputs in the short run, only those inputs that have a cumulative effect are likely to have a significant impact on outputs in the long run. Results also suggest that uncertainty in model outputs may increase for the first few years for which the model is run, as modified inputs send shocks through the urban system. However, the level of uncertainty appears to come down in later years, as households, jobs, and developers respond to changed input conditions.

• Record URL:
  https://doi.org/10.3141/1805-15
• Summary URL:
  http://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=UNCERTAINTY+PROPAGATION+IN+AN+INTEGRATED+LAND+USE-TRANSPORTATION+MODELING+FRAMEWORK%3a+OUTPUT+VARIATION+VIA+URBANSIM&author=A.+Pradhan&author=K.+Kockelman&publication_year=2002
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/isbn/0309077311
• Supplemental Notes:
  • This paper appears in Transportation Research Record No. 1805, Travel Demand and Land Use 2002.
• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

  500 Fifth Street, NW
  Washington, DC  United States  20001
• Authors:
  • Pradhan, A
  • Kockelman, K M
• Publication Date: 2002

Language

• English

Media Info

• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: p. 128-135
• Serial:
  • Transportation Research Record
  • Issue Number: 1805
  • Publisher: Transportation Research Board
  • ISSN: 0361-1981

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Demographics; Land use models; Transportation planning; Travel demand; Travel time; Uncertainty
• Uncontrolled Terms: Integrated models
• Subject Areas: Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Society; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00935411
• Record Type: Publication
• ISBN: 0309077311
• Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
• Created Date: Dec 16 2003 12:00AM