ALTERNATIVE FUTURES FOR INTEGRATED TRANSPORTATION AND LAND USE MODELS CONTRASTED WITH TREND-DELPHI MODELS: PORTLAND, OREGON, METRO RESULTS

Since completing a trend-delphi-based regional forecast and transportation plan in 1996, the Portland, Oregon, Metro has developed an integrated transportation and land use model (MetroScope). The model is being used to explore several regional growth management options as well as to produce a new regional forecast and transportation plan. Comparing MetroScope results with the previous forecast reveals that integrated transportation and land use models may produce different results in regard to trip length, vehicle kilometers traveled, traffic congestion levels, mode and route choice, and employment and household locations. Compared with trend models, integrated models robustly respond to alternative land regulation and transportation investment policy options, allowing planners and officials an opportunity to evaluate the differences in land use and transportation arising from different policy choices. Moreover, the integrated models produce far more data on factors such as real estate prices, tenure choice, residential and nonresidential real estate output, land consumption, redevelopment, and density.

• Record URL:
  https://doi.org/10.3141/1805-12
• Summary URL:
  http://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=ALTERNATIVE+FUTURES+FOR+INTEGRATED+TRANSPORTATION+AND+LAND+USE+MODELS+CONTRASTED+WITH+TREND-DELPHI+MODELS%3a+PORTLAND%2c+OREGON%2c+METRO+RESULTS&author=S.+Conder&author=K.+Lawton&publication_year=2002
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/isbn/0309077311
• Supplemental Notes:
  • This paper appears in Transportation Research Record No. 1805, Travel Demand and Land Use 2002.
• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

  500 Fifth Street, NW
  Washington, DC  United States  20001
• Authors:
  • Conder, S
  • Lawton, K
• Publication Date: 2002

Language

• English

Media Info

• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: p. 99-107
• Serial:
  • Transportation Research Record
  • Issue Number: 1805
  • Publisher: Transportation Research Board
  • ISSN: 0361-1981

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Employment; Forecasting; Households; Land use planning; Location; Mode choice; Real estate development; Regional planning; Regulations; Route choice; Traffic congestion; Transportation planning; Transportation policy; Trip length; Urban growth; Vehicle miles of travel
• Identifier Terms: Tri-County Metropolitan Transportation District of Oregon
• Uncontrolled Terms: Integrated models; Trend-delphi models
• Subject Areas: Highways; Law; Planning and Forecasting; Policy; Society; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00935408
• Record Type: Publication
• ISBN: 0309077311
• Files: TRIS, TRB
• Created Date: Dec 16 2003 12:00AM