AUTOMOBILE OWNERSHIP ANALYSIS USING ORDERED PROBIT MODELS
A mathematical model developed to predict automobile ownership for individual households residing in New York City is presented. This effort is distinguished from previous disaggregate household-level automobile ownership models primarily by the use of ordered probit models rather than the commonly used multinomial logit (MNL) and sequential logit (SL) models. When the dependent variable involves ordinal categorical data (in this case, automobile ownership level--zero automobiles, one automobile, two automobiles, and three or more automobiles), the ordered probit model will discern unequal differences between ordinal categories in the dependent variable, the MNL model will treat categories as independent choice alternatives, and the SL model (a product of binary logits) will assume independence of the error terms across all binary choices. The modeling approach was based on a behavioral analysis that explained the factors influencing household automobile ownership decisions in a highly urbanized environment. In addition to socioeconomic variables, transportation and land use-related measures were developed and used to test the sensitivity of household automobile ownership choice to transit accessibility, traffic congestion, parking cost and availability, and levels of access to opportunity sites through nonmotorized transportation. The estimation results uncover important interactions between socioeconomic- and location-related elements and automobile ownership. Findings provide exploratory methodological and empirical evidence that could lead to an approach to predicting the change in household automobile ownership as a result of changes in future socioeconomic conditions and transportation and land use scenarios.
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Availability:
- Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/isbn/0309077311
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Supplemental Notes:
- This paper appears in Transportation Research Record No. 1805, Travel Demand and Land Use 2002.
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Corporate Authors:
500 Fifth Street, NW
Washington, DC United States 20001 -
Authors:
- Chu, Y-L
- Publication Date: 2002
Language
- English
Media Info
- Features: References; Tables;
- Pagination: p. 60-67
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Serial:
- Transportation Research Record
- Issue Number: 1805
- Publisher: Transportation Research Board
- ISSN: 0361-1981
Subject/Index Terms
- TRT Terms: Accessibility; Automobile ownership; Costs; Decision making; Land use; Mathematical models; Mathematical prediction; Parking; Probits; Public transit; Socioeconomic factors; Traffic congestion; Urban areas
- Geographic Terms: New York (New York)
- Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Economics; Finance; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation; Society; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;
Filing Info
- Accession Number: 00935404
- Record Type: Publication
- ISBN: 0309077311
- Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
- Created Date: Dec 16 2003 12:00AM