Studies have already been published on the probability of collision at sea, the effect of darkness and reduced visibility on the probability of collision, and on the distribution of collisions in particular areas. Only Minorsky and Comstock appear to have studied the extent of the resulting damage and sufficient data are not available for detailed analysis. The establishment and operation of any traffic management system calls for a considerable outlay, so that an objective estimate of the extent of collision losses is often required. Such a cost/benefit survey was carried out by the Japan Transport Economics Reseach Centre on the assumption that a traffic management system can greatly reduce the incidence of collisions involving vessels of over 3000 g.r.t. Since half the aggregate loss is shown to relate to these large vessels (and considering their increasing capital value), an expenditure of ten billion yen or more (20 million English pounds) over a period of ten years would appear to be cost effective if its primary purpose were to avert accidents to large vessels. This paper presents a macroscopic analysis for Japan, with particluar reference to Tokyo Bay, and a cost/benefit estimate is shown to be possible.

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  • Corporate Authors:

    Royal Institute of Navigation

    Royal Geographical Society, 1 Kensington Gore
    London SW7,   England 

    Royal Institute of Navigation

    1 Kensington Gore
    London,   England 
  • Authors:
    • FUJII, Y
  • Publication Date: 1978-1

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Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00173271
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: Journal of Navigation
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Apr 26 1978 12:00AM